A Few 2016 Technology Predictions

I can’t help it. I enjoy the end of the year technology predictions, even though it’s hard to argue with this tweet from Merv Adrian:

By 2016, 99% of readers will be utterly sick of predictions.

— Merv Adrian (@merv) December 19, 2015

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With that in mind, I recently participated in a SandHill.com Q&A on predictions and the year in review. Here are my answers and the links to the other responses on the Sand Hill site [updated on January 4th 2016 to add a new answer and more prediction links]:

Imagine that you have a time capsule to fill. What is the most important news item about a software company that occurred in 2015 that belongs in the capsule, and why?
The resurgence of Microsoft as a cloud company was big news in 2015. Under the leadership of Satya Nadella, the company has once again become relevant, despite a continued decline in PC sales. On its most recent earnings call, financial analysts noted that, “cloud is the epicenter of the growth story,” which represents the ultimate tipping point for enterprise cloud computing adoption.

Read all of the answers.

Who was the biggest tech disruptor in 2015?
Microsoft’s resurgence is the biggest news of 2015, but Amazon, and specifically AWS, has done the most to disrupt traditional approaches to delivering (and purchasing) software in the enterprise. From AWS Aurora and Redshift for database management and data warehousing, to AWS GovCloud, which brings public cloud options to US government agencies, AWS continues to set the cloud computing standard for enterprise IT organizations and independent software vendors (ISVs).

Read the rest of the answers.

Aside from the Internet of Things, which of the following software areas will experience the most change in 2016 – big data solutions, analytics, security, customer success/experience, sales & marketing approach or something else?
2016 will be the year of the data lake. It will surround and, in some cases, drown the data warehouse, and we’ll see significant technology innovations, methodologies and reference architectures that turn the promise into a reality. At the same time, big data solutions will mature (read: security, governance, metadata management) and go beyond the role of being primarily developer tools for highly skilled programmers.

Read the rest of the answers.

In 2016, which software company will be the biggest game-changer for the long term?
From a cloud applications perspective, we continue to see Workday, ServiceNow and, of course, Salesforce expand their footprint and disrupt their markets. From a data management and analytics perspective, more and more Hadoop projects are moving into production with Cloudera, Hortonworks and MapR while also looking to Spark and Databricks, which are gaining significant mindshare for real-time, in-memory computing as well as cloud-based deployments. Meanwhile, Microsoft, AWS and Google continue to push the boundaries of the cloud, each now offering data management / cloud analytics solutions. With that as the background, it’s difficult to pick one software company as the biggest game-changer for the long term. On the other hand, I have to give credit to Amazon for continuing to change the game in each market it enters.

Which software company executive will be in the news headlines the most during 2016?
Does Elon Musk count? The Hyperloop concept is amazing.

Which software company will be the biggest rainmaker in attracting new customers in 2016?
Is Netflix considered a software company these days? What about Uber? Amazon Prime is taking over, but I’m not sure if that counts either. Software is truly eating the world, which is why it’s now easy to confuse a car manufacturer, a media company, a retailer and a ride-sharing service as software companies in 2016. It’s software plus business model disruption and the right mix of timing that will lead to massive customer attraction in 2016.

Read the rest of the answers.

What are the biggest risks for software vendors in 2016?
With so much hype around the promise of new technologies and disruptive business models, the risk is that the so-called unicorns become ‘unicorpses.’ (I’ve also heard the term ‘dinocorns.’) New technology platforms must demonstrate a fast time to value and quantifiable ROI or they will no longer be relevant.”

Read the rest of the answers.

What are the biggest risks for software buyers in 2016?

Complacency – thinking that you can continue to just work with the same handful of legacy software vendors that you’ve known for 10-20 years and hoping that they’ll be able to deliver the level of innovation and agility that newer technology companies and technology platforms were built to deliver. Digital transformation is at the top of the hype cycle, powered by the promise of cloud computing, big data and the Internet of Things; and software buyers must be open to new thinking, new approaches and new technologies.

Read the rest of the answers.

Thanks to Sand Hill for the opportunity to participate in the series. Here are some of the predictions that I’ve enjoyed the most (so far) this holiday season:

• 2016 – The Year of the Connected Customer
• IDC predicts digital transformation will shape 2016
• Gartner Reveals Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users for 2016 and Beyond
• Tech predictions 2016: 4 business trends to watch
• Women In Tech Predict Major Change In 2016
• Frog Design Tech Trends
• Kellblog predictions for 2016
• 5 Data Predictions for 2016

2015 Technology Predictions

I enjoy reviewing the predictions from technology pundits this time of year. I particularly appreciate it when industry analysts take the time to review their predictions from the previous year. Here are a few:

• Forrester: Top IT Predictions for 2015
• Gartner: Top 10 Strategic Technology Predictions for 2015 and Beyond
• IDC: 10 Predictions For Emerging Technologies In 2015
• Ovum predicts digitalization, mobility, cloud and Internet of Things to dominate integration and middleware agenda in 2015
• 6 C’s for More Efficient IT In 2015 [Infographic]
• ThinkStrategies – 2015: The IoT, Big Data and Cloud Come Together

And kudos to Gartner’s Doug Laney for this post – A Look Back on My Information and Analytics Strategy Research from 2014, which also includes links to some of Gartners big data management predictions.

Speaking of predictions, here’s SnapLogic’s Gaurav Dhillon sharing a few of his predictions for 2015:

CIOs are Getting SMACT: #Social, #Mobile, #Analytics, #Cloud, #IoT

Check out this Infographic from SnapLogic – Why Are CIOs Getting SMACT?

Cloud Application, Analytics and Integration Drivers and Barriers

Last week I hosted a webcast that reviewed the results from a recent SnapLogic TechValidate survey on cloud integration. You can download the complete results of the research here. The webcast also featured a deep dive demonstration of the SnapLogic Integration Cloud. I’ve embedded the recording below.

Still Stuggling with SaaS Silos?

Got SaaS? Salesforce? ServiceNow? Workday? Zuora? Amazon Redshift?

What about on-premises apps? SAP? Oracle? Microsoft Dynamics?

Don’t forget social media, big data, identity management, online storage and cloud analytics solutions…

I summarized 5 signs you need to re-think your cloud integration strategy on the SnapLogic blog today. Here’s an overview:

Netflix CIO: 8 Ways for IT to Fix Its Reputation

Check out this great CXO talk featuring Netflix CIO Mike Kail. As summarized by Vala Afshar on the HuffPost Tech Blog, Mike outlines eight ways Information Technology organizations can fix their reputation. I find #7 to be the most disruptive, yet perhaps the most obvious in the best-of-breed SaaS-centric world of Social, Mobile, Analytics, Cloud (SMAC).

1. Focus on cloud wherever possible
2. Hire talented people that think differently
3. IT’s charter is to improve business efficiency
4. Support “UAD” (Use Any Device)
5. Try to remove friction wherever possible
6. Communicate deep context for change
7. Embrace “shadow IT”
8. Partner with line-of-business

I’m curious how many other CIOs out there have embraced “shadow IT“ and what the implications are for the traditional command and control enterprise IT model.

I’ve embedded the video below. Thanks for another great CXO interview @ValaAfshar and @mkrigsman. Great guiding principles and advice for other IT leaders @mdkail.

Better Business Analytics in the Cloud

I moderated a SnapLogic webinar today focused on the market shift to business intelligence, analytics and enterprise performance management delivered in the cloud. We discussed the trends, shared some industry analyst perspectives and demonstrated the importance of cloud integration to an overall business analytics as a service strategy. Here’s the presentation. You can watch the recording when it’s posted here. As always, feedback welcome.

Here are some of the links referenced in the presentation:

• What’s Driving the Shift to On-Demand BI
• Gartner predicts Business Intelligence and Analytics will Remain the Top Focus for CIOs through 2017
• Insights from Findings in Dresner Advisory Services’ 2013 Wisdom of Crowds Business Intelligence Market Study
• Big Business Intelligence Trends for 2014
• Petabyte Scale Data Warehousing with Amazon Redshift
• Business Intelligence Advances Into the Cloud with Some Caveats
• BI in the Cloud: Find Your Bliss
• SnapLogic Named EMA Vendor to Watch
• Ovum on the Radar: SnapLogic

Cloud Integration on the Whiteboard

Check out this chalk-talk series with the head of engineering at SnapLogic talking about application and data integration delivered as a cloud service (aka iPaaS):

Going Beyond Point-to-Point Cloud Integration

SnapLogic Integration Cloud Architecture in Review

The series of whiteboard presentations is posted on the SnapLogic blog.

The Stage is Set for the 3rd Platform Battle

I heard a story today on NPR about young blood reversing heart decline in old mice (the Radiolab podcast is here). Naturally I made the connection to the need for established high-tech companies to inject new thinking, approaches (and blood) in order to remain relevant in the era of SMACT (Social, Mobile, Analytics, Cloud and the Internet of Things). For technology companies trying to Escape Velocity, it’s not just about the old business models and ways of operating vs. the new; it’s about fast vs. slow. It’s about having the vision to skate to where the puck is going early and being nimble and agile enough to make the necessary course corrections.

IDC sees 2014 as a pivotal year for cannibalization as the 2nd platform vendors attempt to adapt and remain relevant. I always enjoy the annual summary of IDC’s technology predictions by Frank Gens. Here it is:

When it comes to cloud integration, I’ve shared some thoughts on the Integrator’s Dilemma here.

In(tegrate) the Clouds Blog 2013 in Review

The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2013 annual report for this blog.

Here’s an excerpt:

The concert hall at the Sydney Opera House holds 2,700 people. This blog was viewed about 15,000 times in 2013. If it were a concert at Sydney Opera House, it would take about 6 sold-out performances for that many people to see it.

Click here to see the complete report.